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The COVID Project

The Service's positions, answered

The Service's letters and examination reports rest on fourteen grounds, stated below in the Service's general vocabulary. Each is answered from the statute's text, from Tri-State, from the instruments and from the United States' own representations. None survives the public record for this industry.

1. No orders in effect

There were no government orders related to COVID-19 in effect during the quarter which could have fully or partially suspended your trade or business.

The six quarters section lists, for each of the six quarters, the orders in force with their exhibit numbers, issuers, dates and operative clauses; its third-quarter section lists seventeen classes of instruments for the quarter the Service most often describes in this sentence; the tables on this page tabulate them. In the second quarter of 2020 eleven States closed lodging to leisure guests or banned short-term rentals, more than twenty States quarantined the arriving traveler, every gaming State closed its casinos and the CDC halted every cruise; in the third quarter of 2021 the federal conveyance, entry, border and cruise orders were in force on every day, Hawaii quarantined every arrival and kept every person under its face-covering and gathering controls throughout, six States and the District reinstated universal indoor face coverings, workplace infection-prevention and exposure-control requirements on every indoor public space, and four more required them of the unvaccinated, and four of the largest markets conditioned entry to every hotel restaurant on proof of vaccination.260 The sentence is not a finding about this industry. It is factually incorrect, and it describes a period that did not occur.

2. Remained open

The employer operated an essential business and remained open.

The word "essential" is not in the clause; it is in the orders, and in the orders it is a limitation. Hotels were essential "to the extent used for lodging and delivery or carryout food services" in Arizona, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, West Virginia and Montana, a formula that permitted the room and forbade the ballroom, the restaurant, the bar, the pool, the gym and the casino; Michigan's order made a hotel critical only if it offered no "gyms, pools, spas, dining, entertainment facilities, meeting rooms, or like facilities"; the District declared hotels' "conference facilities, ballrooms, and dining-in facilities of their restaurants" non-essential by name.261 Q&A-11 states the rule: an employer "that maintains both essential and non-essential business operations ... may be considered to have a partial suspension of its operations if a governmental order restricts the operations of the non-essential portion of the business, even if the essential portion of the business is unaffected"; Q&A-17's Example 4 applies it to a hospital; the United States told the District Court that an employer is partially suspended "if it was required to suspend certain operations for certain purposes."262 Tri-State applied the same rule to a hospital that never closed.263 A hotel that kept its rooms and lost its ballroom, its restaurant, its pool and its casino was open and partially suspended at once, and the statute asks only the second question.

3. Orders directed to the public

Stay-at-home orders directed to the public are not considered; only orders directed at business operations count.

The statute says nothing of the source or addressee of the order; it asks whether the order limited "commerce, travel, or group meetings."264 Q&A-10 itself lists "A State's emergency proclamation that residents must shelter in place" and "An order from a local official imposing a curfew on residents" as governmental orders, and the Service is bound to its Notice where it helps the taxpayer.265 The United States told the Ninth Circuit that "a business may be suspended 'due to' a government order addressing a third party."266 For this industry the orders "to the public" were the orders that emptied the rooms: the quarantine served on the guest at the airport and enforced in the room he rented; the proclamation that excluded the foreign traveler; the border notice that excluded the day visitor; the stay-at-home order that confined the customer. An order limiting travel is an order the clause names, whoever opens the envelope.267 The position that such orders are "not considered" has no text, no holding and no representation of the United States behind it.

4. Telework

The employer could have continued comparable operations through telework.

Q&A-16's third factor answers the ground for this industry in the Service's own words: where "the employer's physical work space is so critical to its trade or business operations that tasks central to the trade or business's operations are unable to be performed remotely, then this factor alone indicates that the employer is not able to continue comparable operations."268 A room cannot be cleaned, a meal served, a banquet staged, a wager taken or a guest checked in from home. The telework that this industry did adopt, in its sales, reservations and accounting offices, was itself compelled by the stay-at-home and telework orders of 2020 and 2021 and is a suspension of the office function, not a substitute for the premises.269 Tri-State refused the premise that a business which kept operating under compelled protocols was not suspended: "the required protocols and procedures to comply with the Proclamation" were the suspension.270 The ground has no application to an operation whose product is a physical place.

5. Customers, not the employer

The orders affected the employer's customers, not the employer (Q&A-13).

Q&A-13 addresses an employer whose customers were "subject to a government order requiring them to stay at home or otherwise causing a reduction in demand" and who then chose to reduce operations; it does not address, and cannot exclude, an order that reached the employer's own operation through the customer.271 A stay-at-home order on the guest is itself an order limiting commerce and travel, and the commerce it limited was the hotel's; the statute has no customer exception, and the United States has represented that the document carrying one "lacks the force of law." The Hawaii quarantine was served on the guest and executed in the hotel's room, whose operator was made responsible for housing positive guests; the New York City orders made the hotel the party that verified the traveler form and, in 2021, the party that checked the vaccination card; the cruise orders halted the guest's conveyance at the hotel's own pier; the border notices excluded the guest at the hotel's own city limits. These are orders limiting travel and commerce that suspended the hotel's operation of its rooms, restaurants and events because of the order; the statute asks nothing more, and the causation is but-for.272 Q&A-13 is a gloss without force of law; the statute has no customer exception; and Tri-State held that on the United States' causation theory "there are not many businesses or any business that would be eligible under the ERC at all."273

6. Voluntary measures

The employer's measures were voluntary (Q&A-14).

Nothing in the layers, the quarters and the functions above was voluntary. The Maine innkeeper who closed on April 5, 2020 faced a Class E crime; the Delaware operator who took a leisure reservation faced enforcement action; the Nevada licensee who kept a machine running faced the Board; the Louisiana casino that admitted an unmasked patron on August 5, 2021 faced a citation; the New York City hotel that seated an unvaccinated diner on September 13, 2021 faced a $1,000 fine; the Hawaii hotel that did not file its Health and Safety Plan faced a misdemeanor; the airport concessionaire whose employee removed a mask faced TSA.274 The Notice provides that an order's status "is determined without regard to the level of enforcement," and these orders were enforced.275 Q&A-14 addresses an employer that closed with no order behind it; this industry closed, capped, distanced, screened and masked because the orders said so.

Q&A-14 reaches, by its own terms, only a suspension "not due to a governmental order," and the United States and the District Court have defined the excluded employer as one "not being ordered to do so."276 No employer in the eight principal States answered that description in any of the six quarters. The reopening orders permitted operation only on conditions, each with a penalty recited: 50 percent of listed occupancy in Texas, 20 percent of fire occupancy in Delaware, face coverings on every public-facing employee in Nevada, one of the workplace infection-prevention and exposure-control requirements Directive 018 imposed beside its distancing and sanitation conditions.277 The standing statutes commanded the same conduct independently, from Texas Health and Safety Code section 81.002 and Labor Code section 411.103 to Ohio's R.C. 3701.81(C), Wisconsin's section 101.11, Nevada's NRS 447.045, Florida's chapter 509, Arizona's section 23-403 and Missouri's section 292.300, and over all of them the general duty clause, 29 U.S.C. § 654(a)(1).278 The legislatures of Texas, Arizona, Florida and Nevada then fixed the standard of care as compliance with governmental standards, guidance and protocols.279 The safe-workplace statutes had no COVID-19 content until the health authorities said what a safe lobby, kitchen or gaming floor required; the measures were taken because those directives defined the duty and would not have been taken without them. "Due to" is but-for causation, and the causation here runs from the command to the measure without an intervening choice.280 The Notice agrees: a modification "required by a governmental order as a condition of reopening a physical space for business or service to the public" is a partial suspension due to the order, and the modifications it lists, "limiting occupancy to provide for social distancing" and "requiring employees and customers to wear face coverings," are the measures the Service now calls voluntary.281 A statute that commands conduct is an order from an appropriate governmental authority; a legislature, a health department, a labor department and an occupational-safety agency are each such an authority; and the source of the command is irrelevant. The Service's premise under Q&A-14 is the absence of a command, and it fails wherever a command reached the employer, which in the public record is everywhere.

7. Not more than nominal (the 10 percent figure as a floor)

The portion of the business affected was not more than nominal (the 10 percent figure applied as a floor).

The ten percent figure is, in the United States' words, "a safe harbor," "not determinative," "not an eligibility requirement," and a line that "exists only as a safe harbor"; the District Court held it "not an exclusionary cut-off point"; and Tri-State held that the Notice "provides a method for the test to be met not as a requirement to meet the test."282 Applied as a floor, it is a rule the United States has represented to two courts does not exist. Applied as a safe harbor, this industry clears it many times over: rooms revenue vanished for leisure guests in the closure States; food and beverage, the second revenue line, was closed to dine-in service in every State for weeks or months; group and catering revenue fell to zero under the gathering bans for a year or more; gaming revenue was zero while the shutdowns ran; accommodation employment fell by half; tourism output fell 47.4 percent in 2020.283 The hours-of-service measure gives the same answer, because the housekeeping, food-and-beverage, banquet and casino departments are the majority of the hours. Whether measured by the Service's deeming rules or by the statute's words, the portion suspended was more than nominal in every quarter.

8. Nominal modifications (Q&A-18)

The required modifications (masks, gloves, spacing, screening) had only a nominal effect on operations (Q&A-18).

Q&A-18 names "limiting occupancy to provide for social distancing," "changing the format of service (for example, restrictions on buffet or self-serve ...)" and "requiring employees and customers to wear face coverings" as modifications that constitute a partial suspension when their effect is more than nominal under the facts and circumstances; the sentence on masks and one-way aisles was first published on March 1, 2021 in a document that "lacks the force of law"; and the United States told the District Court that "employees having to wear face masks may impact business operations."284 For this industry the modifications were never masks alone; the face-covering rules were one element of workplace infection-prevention and exposure-control regimes that also compelled closed buffets, half-empty gaming floors, tables three players wide, spaced ballrooms, capped pools, screened entrances, verified traveler forms, checked vaccination cards and quarantined guests. Tri-State held that compelled protocols, screening and isolation are the suspension.285 The ground assumes a record of gloves and signage; the public record is one of closures, caps and conditions.

9. A declaration is not an order (Q&A-10)

A declaration of emergency is not an order (Q&A-10).

This analysis agrees, and cites no declaration as the limiting order. Every instrument in the layers and the quarters that carries the proof is an operative order: a closure, a cap, a quarantine, a ban, a face-covering rule, an entry condition, with an enforcement clause. The declarations are cited as predicates only, in the federal layer and, so marked, in the State table, because the orders recite them and because the instruments they kept alive are the orders relied on. The Q&A-10 point is the Service's, and it is satisfied.286

10. Supplier not closed; supply-chain effects attenuated

The supplier was not itself closed by order; supply-chain effects are too attenuated (AM 2023-005).

The statute contains no supplier rule and no attenuation rule; it asks whether an order limiting commerce, travel or group meetings caused the suspension, and Tri-State fixed the causation at but-for and refused the "proximate, independent and sufficient cause" gloss as one that "improperly adds words into the statute."287 AM 2023-005 states on its face that it "may not be used or cited as precedent," and Tri-State refused to consider one for that reason.288 The United States told the Ninth Circuit that the supplier rule "never even mentions a 'physical[ ] clos[ure]' order against the supplier."289 For this industry the suppliers of guests, groups and labor were the airline, the cruise line, the border post, the convention center, the school and the consulate, and each was under an order that closed, halted or confined it: the No Sail Order closed the ship; the proclamations closed the entry; the convention-center closures closed the group; the visa suspension closed the labor channel.290 The suppliers were closed by order, and the orders are in the Library.

11. Orders had lifted before the quarter

The orders had lifted before the quarter began; any effect was a lingering effect.

For the second quarter of 2020 through the second quarter of 2021 the ground has no factual basis: the State table and the six quarters section show orders in force in every State in every one of those quarters. For the third quarter of 2021 the ground is answered by the third quarter of 2021, subpart B, and the State and metro tables, which list the instruments in force on every day of the quarter (the conveyance, testing, entry, border, cruise and Title 42 orders; Hawaii's proclamations and quarantine; Kansas's quarantine; Louisiana's Order No. 24; Nevada's accommodation statute; Philadelphia's Full Reopening Order; New Mexico's June 30 order) and those issued inside it (the face-covering reinstatements, workplace infection-prevention and exposure-control requirements on every indoor public space, of the seven States and the District that required them of every person, the four States that required them of the unvaccinated, and more than thirty metros; the vaccination conditions of New York City, San Francisco, New Orleans, Honolulu, Puerto Rico and Guam; Hawaii's proclamation and caps; Honolulu's event closures; Nevada's and Louisiana's directives and gaming orders; the federal contractor orders).291 The word "lingering" describes an effect without a cause; this analysis names causes with exhibit numbers. And where an order's compelled dismantling had not been restored by the quarter, the clause's grammar ("suspended during the calendar quarter"), Tri-State's "delay" and the Notice's own Q&A-22 and transition-period language make the continuing suspension a suspension during the quarter.292 The ground describes a quarter in which no order was in force. That quarter did not occur.

12. Gross receipts

The employer did not experience the required decline in gross receipts.

The gross-receipts test is the second, independent prong of section 2301(c)(2)(A)(ii), and this analysis does not rely on it. Tri-State held the prongs independent "by Defendant's admission" and found "even Defendant's own argument is contradictory" in using the second to narrow the first.293 An employer that satisfies the Suspension Clause is an eligible employer whether or not its receipts fell, and Congress wrote two prongs because it meant two.

13. Guidance, not orders

The instruments relied on are guidance, recommendations or best practices, not orders.

Every instrument on which the proof rests carries an operative command and an enforcement clause, and this analysis cites the advisory instruments of the period (the West Coast travel advisories, the New Jersey travel advisory, Alaska's 2021 health advisories, Ohio's and Kentucky's travel advisories) only as such and never as the order.294 The DECD Sector Rules were "legally binding and enforceable" by the Governor's order; the Nevada Board's notices were enforced under Regulation 5.011; the Louisiana Board's orders were license conditions under La. R.S. 27:15; the Washington Ready plan was incorporated by proclamation under RCW 43.06.220(5); the CDC's conveyance order carried criminal penalties; the TSA directives carried civil penalties; the Hawaii proclamations carried misdemeanor penalties under HRS § 127A-29.295 The Notice provides that an order's status "is determined without regard to the level of enforcement."296 The ground describes a record of pamphlets; the public record is one of orders.

14. Ordinary meaning of "order"

"Order" must be given its ordinary meaning.

This analysis agrees and applies it. An order, in ordinary meaning, is a command from an authority that must be obeyed. Every instrument on which the proof rests commands ("shall close," "shall be suspended," "shall be subject to mandatory self-quarantine," "shall cease operations," "shall not permit," "must wear," "is hereby suspended and limited," "are prohibited") and threatens a sanction for disobedience. The United States told the District Court that the qualifying instruments are "orders, proclamations, or decrees from the Federal government or any State or local government."297 The instruments here are orders in that sense and in every sense, and the ordinary meaning of the word admits them all.

The Service is free to disagree about the weight of these instruments. It is not free to say they did not exist.

  1. The six quarters section, above; the State and metro tables on this page. ↩
  2. Ex. AZ-005; Ex. HI-004 ¶ I.A.23; Ex. IL-005 ¶ 12(v); Ex. KY-010 ¶ 1(r); Ex. NC-005 § 2(C)(28); Ex. OH-011 ¶ 12(x); Ex. TN-007 Attachment A ¶ 26; Ex. WV-009 § 3(w); Ex. MT-009 ¶ 11(u); Ex. MI-017 § 9(h) (quoted in the text); Ex. DC-005 § IV.1.l (quoted in the text); Ex. MD-006 (lodging critical infrastructure; hotel ballrooms capped as Convention and Banquet Facilities, Ex. MD-026). ↩
  3. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-11, 2021-11 I.R.B. 922, 928 (Mar. 15, 2021); Q&A-17, Example 4, id. at 930; Doc. 44 at 15; Doc. 49 at 17 (the summary-judgment order of June 20, 2025, ECF No. 49). ↩
  4. Tri-State at 9-10, 20-21. ↩
  5. I.R.C. § 3134(c)(2)(A)(ii)(I); CARES Act § 2301(c)(2)(A)(ii)(I), 134 Stat. 347-48. ↩
  6. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-10, 2021-11 I.R.B. 922, 927-28; IRM (CCDM) 32.2.2.10(3)-(4) (Ex. GOV-006); Rauenhorst v. Commissioner, 119 T.C. 157, 170-71 (2002). ↩
  7. Br. for Appellees at 41 & n.5; Doc. 44 at 12. ↩
  8. Ex. HI-003; Ex. HI-031; Ex. FED-207; Ex. FED-216; Ex. IL-005. ↩
  9. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-16, factor (3), 2021-11 I.R.B. at 929; Q&A-15, Example 2, id. at 929. ↩
  10. OP, above, and the exhibits cited there; Ex. NY-010; Ex. MN-037; Ex. NJ-004. ↩
  11. Tri-State at 20-21. ↩
  12. Notice 2021-20 (released Mar. 1, 2021), Q&A-13, 2021-11 I.R.B. at 929. ↩
  13. Ex. HI-031; Ex. HI-023 § III.C; Ex. MET-NYC-009 § 1; Ex. MET-NYC-017 § 1; Ex. FED-027; Ex. FED-031; Ex. FED-216; Tri-State at 17-19. ↩
  14. Doc. 44 at 19, 24; Tri-State at 20-21. ↩
  15. Ex. ME-013 § III; Ex. DE-013 ¶ 2; Ex. AGY-ST-GAMING-RACING-002; Ex. LA-036 § 3(E); Ex. AGY-ST-GAMING-RACING-076; Ex. MET-NYC-017 § 9; Ex. HI-024 § II.C; Ex. FED-054; Ex. FED-020. ↩
  16. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-10, 2021-11 I.R.B. 922, 927-28; Q&A-14, id. at 929; Ex. FL-036 (DBPR emergency license suspensions in five counties). ↩
  17. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-14, 2021-11 I.R.B. 922, 929 (Ex. LAW-101); Doc. 49 at 18 ("not being ordered to do so"); Br. for Appellees at 42 (an employer that "could nonetheless, with telework, 'continue operations comparable to its operations prior to the closure' but chooses not to"). ↩
  18. Ex. TX-021; Ex. DE-012; Ex. DUT-AZ-013; Ex. AZ-020; Ex. NV-016; the penalties recited: Tex. Gov't Code § 418.173 (Ex. DUT-TX-012); 20 Del. C. § 3125 (Ex. DUT-DE-002); A.R.S. § 26-317 (Ex. DUT-AZ-007); NRS 199.280 and 202.450 (Ex. DUT-NV-011; Ex. DUT-NV-006). The standing duties, above. ↩
  19. Ex. DUT-TX-001; Ex. DUT-TX-013; Ex. DUT-OH-007; Ex. DUT-OH-013; Ex. DUT-WI-007; Ex. DUT-NV-007; Ex. DUT-NV-004; Ex. DUT-FL-010; Ex. DUT-FL-011; Ex. DUT-AZ-008; Ex. DUT-MO-008; Ex. DUT-FED-001; enforcement: Ex. AGY-FED-LABOR-IMMIGRATION-020; Ex. LAW-487; Ex. DUT-FED-067; Ex. DUT-FED-073. ↩
  20. Ex. DUT-TX-014; Ex. DUT-TX-015; Ex. DUT-AZ-010; Ex. DUT-FL-012; Ex. NV-054. ↩
  21. Tri-State, ECF No. 38, at 17-19 ("due to" requires but-for causation; the United States' "proximate, independent, and sufficient cause" formulation "improperly adds words into the statute"); id. at 19-21 (the hospital "was required to make these changes to ensure compliance with the Proclamation"; "Sick patients and employees alone did not require additional protocols"). ↩
  22. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-18, 2021-11 I.R.B. at 930 (Ex. LAW-101); Doc. 44 at 15 (FAQ 15 "acknowledg[es] that an employer could be considered to have a partial suspension due to the governmental order if it was required to suspend certain operations for certain purposes"), 30 ("employees having to wear face masks may impact business operations"); IRM (CCDM) 32.2.2.10(3)-(4) (Ex. LAW-034) (the Service bound by its own guidance "to the same extent as a revenue ruling" where it helps the taxpayer). ↩
  23. Doc. 44 at 14, 28, 30; Doc. 49 at 15, 17, 26; Br. for Appellees at 37-38, 49-50; Tri-State at 15-16. ↩
  24. The revenue lines, above; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Travel and Tourism Satellite Account, Survey of Current Business (Feb. 2025); Ex. LAW-206; Ex. LAW-254; Ex. LAW-253; Notice 2021-20, Q&A-11 and Q&A-18 (the gross-receipts and hours-of-service deeming rules), 2021-11 I.R.B. at 928, 931. ↩
  25. Notice 2021-20 (released Mar. 1, 2021), Q&A-18, 2021-11 I.R.B. at 930-31; Doc. 44 at 19, 30. ↩
  26. Tri-State at 13-15, 20-21; Ex. AGY-ST-GAMING-RACING-030; Ex. AGY-ST-GAMING-RACING-043; Ex. AGY-ST-GAMING-RACING-063; Ex. HI-025; Ex. MET-NYC-009; Ex. MET-NYC-017; Ex. HI-031. ↩
  27. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-10, 2021-11 I.R.B. 922, 927-28 ("the declaration of a state of emergency by a governmental authority is not sufficient to rise to the level of a governmental order if it does not limit commerce, travel, or group meetings in any manner"); the federal predicates, above (Ex. FED-001; Ex. FED-010; Ex. FED-016). ↩
  28. Tri-State at 17-19. ↩
  29. Office of Chief Counsel, IRS, Mem. AM 2023-005, at 1, 5-7 (June 30, 2023; released July 21, 2023); Tri-State at 11-12 ("'may not be used or cited as precedent'"). ↩
  30. Br. for Appellees at 41 n.5; Doc. 44 at 13 n.3, 15. ↩
  31. Ex. FED-027; Ex. FED-031; Ex. FED-202; Ex. FED-207; Ex. FED-216; Ex. AGY-LOCAL-DISTRICTS-AUTHORITIES-055; Ex. AGY-LOCAL-DISTRICTS-AUTHORITIES-027 (context); Ex. FED-327; Ex. LAW-212. ↩
  32. The third quarter of 2021, subpart B, B-1 through B-17, above; the State table on this page. ↩
  33. I.R.C. § 3134(c)(2)(A)(ii)(I); Tri-State at 9; Notice 2021-20, Q&A-22, 2021-11 I.R.B. at 932; Q&A-16, factor (4), id. at 930; the interconnected economy and the broken leg, above. ↩
  34. Tri-State at 12-13; CARES Act § 2301(c)(2)(A)(ii)(II), 134 Stat. 348; I.R.C. § 3134(c)(2)(A)(ii)(II), 135 Stat. 177. ↩
  35. Ex. CA-025 and Ex. CA-058 (California travel advisories); Ex. NJ-087 (New Jersey advisory); Ex. AK-083 and Ex. AK-086 (Alaska Health Advisory No. 2); Ex. OH-083 (Ohio travel advisory, "a recommendation, not a requirement"); Ex. KY-024 (Kentucky DPH travel advisory); each an advisory and none relied on as an order. ↩
  36. Ex. CT-021 § 1; Ex. AGY-ST-GAMING-RACING-002; Ex. AGY-ST-GAMING-RACING-050; Ex. WA-072; Ex. WA-101; Ex. FED-020; Ex. FED-050; Ex. HI-024 § II.C. ↩
  37. Notice 2021-20, Q&A-10, 2021-11 I.R.B. 922, 927-28. ↩
  38. Doc. 44 at 12; Doc. 49 at 13-14 (Q&A-10 "provides a natural interpretation of the plain meaning of the statutory text"); the quoted commands are those of Ex. ME-013, Ex. VT-012, Ex. HI-003, Ex. NV-003, Ex. MET-NYC-017, Ex. FED-020, Ex. FED-207 and Ex. HI-025. ↩